After watching championship golf for four decades, I have come to realize that The Open is much, much different from every other major. The Masters tests your creativity, the PGA Championship rewards power, and the U.S. Open punishes mistakes. But The Open asks a more fundamental question: can you still play golf when Mother Nature is doing everything possible to stop you?
At Royal Portrush, that question becomes downright existential.
This year's championship feels particularly loaded with storylines. We have all watched Rory McIlroy finally get that Masters monkey off his back, completing the career Grand Slam in emotional fashion. We have seen Scottie Scheffler just keep winning, adding another PGA Championship while staying locked in as the world's top-ranked player. Now these two heavyweights are heading to Northern Ireland's coast, where the wind does not just blow — it has an attitude.
With the FedEx Cup playoffs starting in just three weeks, this is the last major chance for players to make their mark before the season's final stretch. Some are looking for redemption. Others want to cap off what has already been a great year.
The Venue: Royal Portrush Does Not Play Around
If you want to understand what makes Royal Portrush special, you need to appreciate links golf at its most raw and honest. This course, carved out of Northern Ireland's rugged coastline, does not just challenge you, it interrogates every part of your game. The wind here seems to have a personal vendetta against every golfer who shows up.
At 7,381 yards and par 71, Royal Portrush is plenty long, but that is not what makes it tough. The first hole lets you know immediately that this is not going to be a friendly conversation. The second hole stretches 580 yards and looks like it might give you a birdie chance, but only if you are brave enough to take on whatever the wind is doing that day.
The real teeth come out in the middle of the round. Take the 14th hole, nicknamed "Calamity" — and trust me, that is not a coincidence. It is a 210-yard par 3 that looks innocent enough on the scorecard, but the green sits right next to a ravine that has swallowed more golf balls than I care to count. Standing on that tee, you need more than good technique. You need guts.
The finishing hole is a 470-yard par 4 that usually plays straight into the wind. By Sunday afternoon, when the nerves are jangling and the leaderboard is packed, that green looks about the size of a dinner plate.
This is links golf the way it was meant to be played: A conversation between you and the elements, where the smartest player often beats the longest hitter.
The Favorites
Scottie Scheffler: The Machine
If I had to design a player specifically for Royal Portrush, I would probably end up with something that looks a lot like Scottie Scheffler. He has already won three times this season, including a dominant PGA Championship performance that reminded everyone why he is No. 1 in the world.
What I love about Scheffler's game is not just that he hits it pure, though he absolutely does, is how he thinks through problems. While other players are getting frustrated with tough conditions, Scheffler seems to relish the challenge. He stays calm when things get crazy, which is exactly what you need when the wind is howling and the course is trying to eat you alive.
Here's the thing: Scheffler's tie for eighth in 2021 and tie for seventh last year at Royal Troon show that he is figuring out links golf. More importantly, he is the only player to finish in the top 10 in all three majors this year. That is not luck — that is championship DNA.
Everyone always talks about his putting being a weakness, but honestly, that might not matter much at Royal Portrush. These greens are so tricky that even the best putters struggle. When everyone is fighting just to avoid three-putts, Scheffler's steady approach might actually be an advantage.
Rory McIlroy: Coming Home
Talk about emotional baggage. Six years ago, McIlroy came to his home Open and shot 79-65 to miss the cut. It was one of those performances that just crystallized all his major championship struggles. But now he has that Masters win under his belt, the career Grand Slam is complete, and he looks like a player who has remembered how much fun golf can be.
Three wins this season, including some emotional victories at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Players Championship, show he is playing with a different kind of confidence. That Masters win seemed to unlock something in his head, like he finally stopped carrying around all that pressure and expectation.
But here is what worries me: his driving has been all over the place this season (169th on Tour in Driving Accuracy), and Royal Portrush punishes wild drives like few courses can. His tie for second at the Genesis Scottish Open last week showed flashes of brilliance, so he may not even need to find fairways and still find himself in contention.
The crowd factor is enormous here. Playing at home can either lift you up or crush you under the weight of expectation. If McIlroy can feed off that energy instead of feeling suffocated by it, he has the talent to run away with this thing.
Xander Schauffele: The Defending Champion
Defending at The Open is brutally difficult. The last player to pull it off was Padraig Harrington in 2008. But if anyone has the temperament to break that drought, it is Schauffele. His win at Royal Troon last year was a masterclass in steady, pressure-proof golf. While everyone else was losing their minds, he just kept hitting fairways and greens.
This season has been tougher for him with only two top-10 finishes in 12 starts. But both of those came at the right times: tie for eighth at the Masters and tie for eighth at the Genesis Scottish Open last week. Maybe his game is rounding into form when it matters most.
The thing about Schauffele is he never gets too high or too low. That emotional steady state is perfect for major championships, especially The Open, where conditions can change by the hour.
The Contenders
Shane Lowry: The People's Champion
It is hard to imagine anyone getting a bigger ovation this week than Shane Lowry. His 2019 win here was one of those magical sporting moments with a local hero capturing his home Open by six strokes while the crowd went absolutely mental. The question is whether he can recapture that magic.
His form suggests he still has plenty left in the tank. Four top-10 finishes this season, including a couple of runner-up finishes, show he is still playing at a high level. But 2019 was different as he was playing without pressure, just some Irish guy having the week of his life. Now he is the defending champion at this venue. That is a different kind of pressure.
J.J. Spaun: The Hot Hand
Nobody is playing better golf right now than J.J. Spaun. His U.S. Open win at Oakmont announced him as a legitimate major championship player, and his consistency this season has been pretty decent finishing in the top 25 in 8 of his 19 starts. However, he surprisingly missed the cut last week at the Genesis Scottish Open.
What I do like about Spaun is his style. He is not flashy, does not try to overpower courses. He just grinds away, makes smart decisions and avoids big numbers. That is exactly what works in links golf. Plus, he has never played The Open before, so he has no bad memories to deal with.
Justin Rose: The Crafty Veteran
At 44, Rose is still mixing it with the young players. His runner-up finish at the Masters and tie for sixth at the Genesis Scottish Open show he is far from done. With 22 Open appearances under his belt, he has seen every possible condition and situation. That experience is invaluable when things get nasty.
Rose has evolved from the aggressive young player who won the 2013 U.S. Open into a patient veteran who knows that majors are often won by avoiding disasters rather than hitting hero shots.
Dark Horses
Robert MacIntyre: A Local Favorite
MacIntyre's tie for sixth here in 2019 showed he can handle both the course and the pressure of playing in front of semi-local crowds. His runner-up finish at this year's U.S. Open proved he can contend in majors. Playing with the crowd behind him, he could channel some of that Lowry magic from 2019.
Chris Gotterup: Riding the Wave
Gotterup's win at the Genesis Scottish Open last week gives him precisely the kind of momentum that can propel players to unexpected heights. The last player to win on tour and then capture a major the following week? McIlroy in 2014. History does not repeat, but sometimes it rhymes.
The Pick
Looking at everything — current form, course fit, mental approach — I keep coming back to Scheffler. His combination of ball-striking, course management and mental toughness feels tailor-made for Royal Portrush. He is playing the best golf in the world right now, and The Open is the one major he is still chasing.
McIlroy's narrative is compelling, and if he can handle the emotional weight of playing at home, he has the talent to dominate. But those driving issues concern me on a course that demands precision.
Among the longer shots, Spaun's hot streak and methodical approach make him an intriguing prospect. He has no Open baggage and seems to thrive under pressure.
The beauty of The Open is that it often makes fools of our predictions. The course, the weather and the unique demands of links golf create an environment where anything can happen. But that is also what makes it the most compelling championship in golf.
Royal Portrush is ready to crown a champion. The question is: Who is ready for Royal Portrush?
